Cotality's April 2026 Home Value Index shows the sharpest east-west split in the Australian property market in years.
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) released its April 2026 Home Value Index this week, confirming what local agents have been muttering for weeks: the Sydney and Melbourne markets have stalled while the smaller capitals keep climbing. The national headline of +0.3% conceals the sharpest geographic split the index has shown in years.
| City | April 2026 change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | -0.6% | Listings up, buyer sentiment cooling |
| Melbourne | -0.6% | Worst of the major capitals; weighed by stamp duty and land tax settings |
| Brisbane | +1.1% | Steady growth, inventory remains tight |
| Adelaide | +1.2% | Continued momentum from 2025 |
| Perth | +2.1% | Strongest gain; WA economy and migration driving demand |
| National (combined capitals) | +0.3% | Weakest monthly gain in nearly a year |
Three forces explain most of it. The RBA's third rate hike of 2026, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, hit the largest-mortgage markets hardest - Sydney and Melbourne carry the biggest average loan balances. Inventory levels diverged sharply through April, with Sydney and Melbourne listings rising while Perth and Brisbane remained tight. And the 2026-27 Federal Budget's restriction on negative gearing for new established property purchases from 1 July 2027 has dampened investor demand particularly in the east-coast majors where investors make up a larger share of activity.
Despite the April wobble, the longer picture remains remarkable. Combined capitals are up 33.7% since 2021. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have each gained 80-90% over the same five years - in some cases doubling. Sydney and Melbourne have grown much less and look stretched on affordability metrics. Mean reversion arguments cut both ways.
For Sydney and Melbourne sellers, expect more competition for a smaller pool of buyers willing to commit at higher rates. Pricing realistically matters more than it did in 2023-24. For buyers in those cities, there's slightly more negotiating room than there was 6 months ago, though serviceability calculations at 4.35% cash rate need to assume rates stay restrictive for some time.
For Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide buyers, the seller-friendly market continues. Tight stock means well-presented homes still attract multiple offers in many suburbs. Affordability concerns are real, but the local supply-demand mismatch persists.
For everyone: trying to time the cycle is hard. The strongest predictor of a successful property purchase remains a long time horizon, stable income for serviceability, and a property you'd be happy holding through a downturn.
Disclaimer: This article reports on Cotality's April 2026 Home Value Index release. Data attributable to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic). General information only, not financial or investment advice. For property-specific advice consult a licensed mortgage broker, conveyancer or licensed buyer's agent.